Stochastic Analysis of the Impact of Growth-Rates on Stock Market Prices in Nigeria
I. U. Amadi *
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Captain Elechi Amadi Polytechnic, Rumuola, Port Harcourt, Nigeria.
R. Igbudu
Department of Computer Science, Ken-Saro-Wiwa Polytechnic, Port Harcourt, Nigeria.
P. A. Azor
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University Otuoke, Bayelsa State, Nigeria.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
A stochastic analysis of stock market expected returns and Growth-rates were investigated. The precise conditions for obtaining the drifts, volatilities and Growth-rates of four different stocks were also considered herein. From the stochastic analysis of the model; systems of non-linear stochastic differential equations were developed by means of covariance matrix solution on the stochastic part of the expected returns of investors while the deterministic part a function of the drift parameter as a mean column vector. A condition were imposed that multiplied drift parameter by one and solving simultaneously to obtain future stock prices. From the estimated growth-rates shows severe depletion of securities which are indexed by per thousands of naira leading to financial liquation. Also there are also good increases in growth rate values which dominantly indicate high stock returns over the trading period. This remark leads to a favorable profit margin on the aspect of investors. These are obtainable and conferred in this paper.
Keywords: Stock market price, drift, volatility, growth-rates, SDE and stochastic analysis